2026年全球宏观经济政策走向

Global Economic Overview - The global economy is at a critical juncture, with the IMF predicting a slowdown in growth from 3.2% in 2025 to 3.1% in 2026, and the WTO warning of a potential drop in global goods trade growth to 0.5% in 2026 [1][2] - The economic fluctuations in 2025 were influenced by the introduction of "reciprocal tariffs" by the Trump administration, shifts in monetary policy among major economies, the AI technology revolution, and geopolitical tensions [1][2] U.S. Economic Policies and Impact - Trump's policies have significantly increased global economic uncertainty, with the "reciprocal tariffs" impacting global trade and leading to a compromise in his approach as trade negotiations progressed [2][4] - The tariff policy initially involved high rates to gather negotiation leverage, resulting in a significant increase in tariff revenue, totaling $236.1 billion in the first 11 months of 2025, which improved the fiscal deficit [5][6] - However, the tariffs also contributed to inflation, with estimates showing they added 0.3 percentage points to the overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) [6] Monetary Policy and Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve implemented three preventive rate cuts in 2025, totaling 75 basis points, indicating a dovish stance despite internal disagreements [11][12] - The Fed's independence is expected to face challenges in 2026, particularly with the potential appointment of a new chair who may align more closely with Trump's growth-friendly monetary policy [11][12] European Economic Outlook - The Eurozone experienced moderate recovery in 2025, driven by monetary easing, but faced challenges from U.S. tariffs and geopolitical uncertainties [13][14] - In 2026, the European economy is expected to maintain moderate recovery, aided by trade agreements and fiscal expansion in Germany, with inflation trends showing a downward trajectory [14] Japanese Economic Challenges - Japan's economy faced setbacks in 2025, with GDP contracting for the first time in five quarters, primarily due to weak domestic demand [15][16] - The "Kishida Economics" approach aims to stimulate demand through fiscal and monetary policies, but it faces significant challenges, including inflation control and fiscal sustainability [15][16]