中信建投期货:农产品早报1.19
Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-19 01:48

Group 1: Corn Market - The corn futures for March reached a peak of 2300 yuan/ton, but the overall trend remains weak; the CBOT March corn contract rose by 2.25 cents [4] - On January 12, the China Grain Reserves Corporation's Jilin branch auctioned nearly 30,000 tons of corn, all of which was sold at a premium. However, on January 15, only 20% of the 16,000 tons auctioned was sold. The Jilin branch plans to auction 71,000 tons on January 16, indicating that market sentiment is still waiting to be released [4] - Brazil's National Grain Exporters Association (ANEC) reported that corn exports from Brazil in January are expected to reach 3.27 million tons, an increase from the previous estimate of 2.85 million tons and a 2.7% rise compared to the same period last year [5] Group 2: Soybean Meal Market - The CBOT soybean market benefited from favorable biofuel policies, continuing to rebound, but the outlook for abundant South American production limits upward potential [16] - Forecasts indicate that the upcoming week will see significant rainfall in Brazil's Midwest (over 80 mm), while the southern regions and key areas in Argentina will experience little to no rain, raising concerns about the impact of high temperatures and low rainfall on Argentine soybean growth [16] - The market is currently in a state of "overall looseness but with structural tightness expected," with weakening cost support from the U.S. market and declines in meal prices affecting soybean meal prices [16] Group 3: Egg Market - The spot price of eggs in major production areas continues to rise, with the average price in Hebei's Guantao at approximately 3.40 yuan per jin, an increase of 0.06 yuan from the previous day [17] - The industry inventory is at a historical low, with available days of inventory in production and circulation at around one day, making the market highly sensitive to concentrated demand releases [17] - In the medium to long term, the price of eggs is expected to gradually increase, driven by a clear trend of capacity reduction [17] Group 4: Pig Market - The average price of live pigs in major production areas is approximately 13.25 yuan per kilogram, with prices continuing to rise above 13 yuan per kilogram [19] - There is a growing sentiment for piglet restocking in January, with prices for piglets rising quickly to an average of 330 yuan per head [19] - Short-term focus should be on the near-term market trends, while medium-term strategies can be based on breeding profits [19]