中信建投期货：工业品早报1.19

Group 1: Copper Market - The main copper futures in Shanghai closed at 10028 yuan, with a minimum intraday price of 99620 yuan, while London copper retreated to around 13155 USD [4][18] - Macro sentiment is neutral to bearish, influenced by Trump's tariff announcement on eight European countries and uncertainty in monetary policy, which has increased risk aversion [5][18] - Global copper inventories increased by 65,700 tons to 955,000 tons, with domestic stocks rising significantly by 36,700 tons to 319,000 tons [5][18] - Short-term copper prices are expected to face downward pressure due to profit-taking, but demand from downstream stocking ahead of the holiday may limit the extent of the decline [5][18] - The reference trading range for today's Shanghai copper futures is set at 99,000 to 102,000 yuan per ton [5][18] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources announced an adjustment of nickel ore RKAB quotas to 250-260 million tons for 2026, which is expected to support nickel prices in the short term [6][19] - The nickel market currently lacks significant supply-demand contradictions, and the tightening quota expectations have already been priced in [6][19] - The trading range for nickel futures in Shanghai is suggested to be between 130,000 and 150,000 yuan per ton [20] Group 3: Aluminum Market - Market sentiment for aluminum continues to cool, with alumina prices declining; the domestic weighted average price is 2627.6 yuan per ton, down 34.1 yuan from the previous week [21][22] - The production capacity of alumina has rebounded to 96.25 million tons, indicating ongoing oversupply pressure [21][22] - The expected trading range for alumina futures is set at 2500 to 2800 yuan per ton, with a bearish outlook for prices [22][23] Group 4: Zinc Market - Zinc prices showed weak fluctuations, influenced by Trump's tariff announcement and profit-taking from previous positions [24] - Supply-side issues include temporary maintenance at some smelters in Yunnan due to raw material problems, leading to insufficient increases in zinc ingot production [24] - The trading range for zinc futures in Shanghai is suggested to be around 23800 to 25000 yuan per ton [24] Group 5: Lead Market - Lead prices are experiencing weak fluctuations, with supply-side pressures from both primary and secondary sources [25] - The overall market sentiment is weak, with downstream purchasing intentions declining as the traditional off-season approaches [25] - The trading range for lead futures in Shanghai is suggested to be between 16800 and 17800 yuan per ton [25] Group 6: Precious Metals - Precious metals are showing divergent trends, with gold steadily rising while silver has slightly retreated after a strong breakout [27] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, and Trump's tariff announcements are increasing uncertainty, supporting safe-haven buying in precious metals [27] - The suggested trading ranges for precious metals are: gold at 1010-1060 yuan per gram, silver at 21500-23000 yuan per kilogram, platinum at 590-640 yuan per gram, and palladium at 450-490 yuan per gram [27]