中信建投期货：能化早报1.19

Group 1: PX Industry - The PX industry in China saw a month-on-month load decrease of 1.5% to 89.4%, while the Asian industry load decreased by 0.6% to 80.6% [3][15] - Domestic industry load is at a historical high for the same period, with the announced maintenance plans for January to March being weaker than in previous years, and overseas plants planning to increase loads, indicating overall supply is expected to remain ample [3][15] - The demand side is pressured by numerous maintenance plans for downstream PTA facilities in the first quarter, leading to a forecast of a loose supply-demand balance for PX [3][15] - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have eased slightly, which may provide some support for oil prices, but the underlying risks remain, continuing to support the PX market [3][15] - The PX May futures price is expected to follow oil price adjustments, with a support area around 6950-7050 where buying opportunities may be considered [3][15] Group 2: PTA Industry - The PTA industry experienced a month-on-month load decrease of 1.9% to 76.3%, which is at a historically low level for the same period, compounded by numerous maintenance plans in the first quarter [4][16] - The overall atmosphere for new orders is weak, with a continuous decline in operating rates for terminal factories in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions [4][16] - The PTA market is expected to face inventory pressure in the first quarter due to weak terminal demand and potential reductions in polyester production [4][16] - The PTA May futures price is anticipated to follow oil price adjustments, with strong support expected below the 5000 mark [4][16] Group 3: EG Industry - The domestic ethylene glycol (EG) industry saw a month-on-month load increase of 0.5% to 74.4%, with synthetic gas production load increasing by 1.6% to 80.2%, remaining at a historical high [5][17] - Despite high shipping costs and potential reductions in imports due to Middle Eastern maintenance, domestic supply remains ample, leading to overall supply pressure [5][17] - Weak new order performance and declining operating rates in terminal factories are expected to lead to inventory accumulation in January, with February potentially being the peak period for inventory pressure [5][17] Group 4: PF Industry - The direct-spun polyester short fiber load remained stable at 99.1%, supported by low inventory levels, while the industry operating rate remains high [6][18] - Demand is expected to weaken as downstream yarn enterprises enter a cautious purchasing phase due to cash flow pressures, leading to a reduction in production loads [6][18] - The PF March futures price is expected to fluctuate in line with raw material prices, with ongoing pressure from weak terminal demand [6][18] Group 5: PR Industry - The bottle-grade PET industry load decreased by 6.4% to 68.4%, with the industry operating load at a historically low level, and further maintenance plans expected to continue the supply contraction [7][19] - The current period is characterized by a traditional off-season for beverage consumption, limiting production recovery potential in January and February [7][19] - The PR March futures price is expected to fluctuate with raw material prices, with short-term strategies suggesting a preference for PR over PF [7][19] Group 6: Soda Ash Industry - Recent soda ash futures saw a slight decline, with stable spot prices, while market sentiment weakened [8][20] - Soda ash production increased by 22,000 tons to 775,000 tons, leading to increased supply pressure [8][20] - Downstream demand has slightly decreased, with inventory levels rising, indicating a potential for ongoing supply-demand imbalance [8][20] Group 7: Glass Industry - Glass futures experienced a slight increase, with stable spot prices and marginal improvements in the supply-demand balance [10][22] - Recent glass production saw a slight increase, with improved purchasing activity from downstream sectors leading to a decrease in inventory levels [10][22] - The glass market is expected to remain under seasonal demand pressure, with prices anticipated to fluctuate [10][22]