华泰期货：关税事宜再起波澜 铜价暂陷震荡格局

Market Overview - The average price of SMM1 electrolytic copper for the week ending January 16, 2026, ranged from 101,855 to 103,915 CNY/ton, showing a peak and subsequent decline during the week [2][14] - LME inventory changed by 0.63 million tons to 143.6 thousand tons, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory changed by 3.30 million tons to 213.5 thousand tons [2][14] - Domestic social inventory (excluding bonded zones) changed by 2.75 million tons to 320.9 thousand tons, and bonded zone inventory changed by 0.12 million tons to 80 thousand tons [2][14] - Comex inventory increased by 20.7 thousand short tons to 538.7 thousand short tons [2][14] Macroeconomic Insights - U.S. President Trump expressed a desire for Hassett to remain in his current position rather than move to the Federal Reserve, making former Fed Governor Kevin Walsh a leading candidate for the next Fed Chair [3][15] - Fed Vice Chair Jefferson stated that interest rates are aligned with neutral levels and the current policy stance is "well-positioned," with a projected economic growth of 2% in the short term [3][15] - Fed Governor Bowman indicated that current monetary policy remains moderately restrictive and adjustments may be necessary if employment conditions do not improve [3][15] Mining Sector - The SMM import copper concentrate index reported -46.53 USD/dry ton, down 1.12 USD from the previous period [5][16] - In December 2025, China imported 2.704 million physical tons of copper ore and concentrates, a month-on-month increase of 7% and a year-on-year increase of 7.2% [5][17] - The Mantoverde copper mine in Chile is experiencing a strike, with labor negotiations at a standstill, affecting production [5][17] Smelting and Import Dynamics - Yangshan copper premium continued to decline, with average bill of lading transaction prices at 41 USD/ton, down 4.2 USD week-on-week [6][16] - As of January 16, 2026, the market is experiencing significant divergence between buyers and sellers, with limited actual transactions due to high copper prices [6][16] Recycling and Scrap Copper - Copper prices fluctuated widely, with a recorded increase of 310 CNY/ton, but Guangdong bright copper prices fell by 100 CNY to 89,500 CNY/ton [7][18] - The recycled copper raw material market remains relatively firm, but downstream enterprises face dual pressures of raw material sourcing difficulties and weak sales [7][18] Consumption Trends - The operating rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises was 57.47%, a week-on-week increase of 9.65 percentage points [8][19] - The operating rate for copper wire and cable enterprises was 55.99%, slightly down by 0.59 percentage points week-on-week [8][19] - The U.S. administration announced a 25% tariff on certain semiconductors and related products starting January 15, which may impact demand for non-ferrous metals, including copper [8][19] Strategy Outlook - The current outlook for copper is neutral, with prices expected to fluctuate between 99,500 CNY/ton and 125,000 CNY/ton due to high prices and weak downstream demand [10][20]