中金：首次覆盖佳鑫国际资源予“跑赢行业”评级 目标价95港元

Core Viewpoint - CICC has initiated coverage on Jaxin International Resources (03858), focusing on its operations at the Bakuta tungsten mine in Kazakhstan, and has given it an "outperform" rating with a target price of HKD 95.00, based on a P/E valuation method corresponding to 22.6x and 14.8x P/E for 2026-2027 [2][10] Industry Overview - The global tungsten supply-demand balance is expected to remain tight, with tungsten prices likely to steadily increase. The supply side shows strong scarcity and high concentration, with China consistently holding the largest share of global tungsten production. Domestic supply is facing contraction pressures due to declining ore grades and stricter production regulations, while overseas tungsten mine development is generally slow. CICC forecasts a CAGR of +2.4% for global tungsten supply from 2023 to 2028. On the demand side, emerging needs from photovoltaic tungsten wire, AI PCBs, and large infrastructure projects are expected to boost domestic tungsten consumption. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical conflicts may trigger strategic stockpiling demand. CICC anticipates a CAGR of +2.7% for global tungsten consumption during the same period [3][11][12] Company Advantages - Jaxin International Resources possesses four core advantages that could establish it as a leading player in the mining sector in Central Asia. 1. Good Resources: The Bakuta tungsten mine has large reserves, low costs, and favorable conditions for large-scale development. 2. Good Location: The Bakuta project is strategically located with convenient transportation, benefiting from Kazakhstan's rich resources and favorable business environment, supported by the comprehensive strategic partnership between China and Kazakhstan and the Belt and Road Initiative. 3. Good Mechanism: The mixed ownership structure and management team are expected to empower the company. 4. Good Growth: The company shows strong growth potential in capacity expansion, deep processing, and resource replenishment, positioning it to become a leading non-ferrous company in Central Asia with global sales [4][13] Profit Forecast and Valuation - CICC projects the company's EPS for 2025-2027 to be HKD 0.63, HKD 4.18, and HKD 6.56, respectively, with a CAGR of 221.6%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 2.6 billion, RMB 17.2 billion, and RMB 26.3 billion for the same years. The current stock price corresponds to a P/E of 16.5x and 10.5x for 2026-2027. The initial coverage gives an "outperform" rating with a target price of HKD 95, indicating a potential upside of 38% [6][14]