美元指数高位震荡 市场静待美联储会议与地缘风险指引

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index is experiencing narrow fluctuations around 99.40, maintaining a high-level oscillation pattern, with short-term support concentrated in the 98.90-99.00 range [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - Market sentiment is cautious as the Federal Reserve's meeting on January 27-28 approaches, with expectations of steady interest rates providing some support for the dollar [1] - Investors are particularly focused on the policy statement regarding inflation and employment assessments, as well as any clearer signals regarding potential interest rate cuts [1] Group 2: Currency Pair Movements - The euro has slightly rebounded to around 1.1618 against the dollar, while the dollar-yen pair is fluctuating around 158.50, with the 160 level seen as a potential intervention point [1] - The British pound has risen to 1.3390 against the dollar, but uncertainties regarding the UK economic outlook continue to limit its upward potential [1] - The Chinese yuan's midpoint is reported at 7.0051, an increase of 27 basis points, with offshore yuan approaching the 6.96 mark, reaching a 20-month high [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis of the Dollar Index - The short-term core oscillation range for the dollar index is identified as 99.00-99.60, currently operating near the mid-range [2] - The 5-day and 10-day moving averages are showing a golden cross but are closely aligned, indicating intense short-term bullish and bearish competition [2] - The upper resistance area of 99.60-99.80 has been tested multiple times, while the lower support at 98.90-99.00 is reinforced by the 60-day moving average [2] Group 4: Market Positioning and Indicators - The latest CFTC report shows a slight decrease in non-commercial net long positions for the dollar, indicating a reduction in market confidence towards dollar bullishness [2] - The RSI indicator is at 52, indicating a neutral zone without clear overbought or oversold signals, while the MACD indicator shows a slight reduction in momentum [2]