黄金早参｜地缘因素扰动，避险需求降温，金价高位震荡

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced fluctuations last week, initially rising due to escalating tensions between the US and Iran and increasing expectations for interest rate cuts, reaching a high of $4650 before dropping to $4539 as tensions eased [1] - COMEX gold futures closed the week up 2.23% at $4601.1 per ounce, while the Huaxia Gold ETF (518850) rose 2.73% and the Gold Stock ETF (159562) increased by 6.42% [1] - President Trump indicated that Iran had committed to stopping violence, leading to a significant reduction in risk premiums associated with geopolitical tensions, which had previously driven gold and silver prices higher [1] Group 2 - Analysis suggests that the global dollar reserve ratio continued to decline in Q2, and the US fiscal deficit is growing, indicating a trend towards de-dollarization that benefits gold's monetary attributes [2] - It is expected that real interest rates will continue to decline by 2026, providing further medium-term support for gold [2] - The new tax policy on gold is expected to significantly impact domestic physical gold demand, and with high gold prices, demand for gold jewelry may continue to decline by 2026, necessitating attention to central bank purchases and investment demand to offset this decline [2]