智通财经网·2026-01-19 03:13Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that listed banks are expected to achieve a strong start in credit growth, particularly in the corporate sector, which will support steady annual credit growth [1] - The report forecasts that the incremental RMB loans in January 2026 will be approximately 5.5-5.6 trillion yuan, an increase of about 300 billion yuan year-on-year, with financial institutions' RMB loans expected to be around 5.3-5.4 trillion yuan, up by about 250 billion yuan year-on-year [1] - The report highlights that the corporate loans are anticipated to perform better than the same period last year due to factors such as a later Spring Festival, increased working days, and proactive fiscal measures [1] Group 2 - The report indicates that the narrowing of interest margin (NIM) is expected to slow down, with a projected decline of about 5-10 basis points in 2026 under the assumption of a 50 basis point reserve requirement cut and a 10 basis point interest rate cut [2] - The optimization of funding costs is expected to be a major support for banks, as the maturity of high-interest deposits and the optimization of deposit structure will help reduce funding costs [2] - The report notes that the self-discipline of interbank deposit rates will also contribute to lowering banks' funding costs [2] Group 3 - The overall asset quality is expected to remain stable, benefiting from the gradual progress in debt restructuring, with low exposure to real estate-related risks for listed banks [3] - The report mentions that the retail non-performing loan (NPL) risk is expected to remain stable, with the main influencing factors being residents' income and income expectations [3] - Continuous efforts to stabilize the real estate market and improve residents' employment and income are emphasized as important measures [3]