2026年投资机会在哪？权益/固收/商品/海外

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic environment in 2026 is expected to be characterized by a "loose external and stable internal" pattern, with China and the U.S. likely maintaining a "competitive yet non-destructive" relationship, which will continue to influence investment strategies and opportunities [16]. Investment Opportunities - Three main investment directions are highlighted: 1. AI technology innovation, particularly in domestic computing power, edge hardware, and semiconductor supply chains [3][5]. 2. Repricing of resources and manufacturing sectors, focusing on non-ferrous metals (like copper), chemicals, and aviation due to supply-demand gaps [3]. 3. Companies expanding overseas, leveraging China's manufacturing advantages in sectors such as construction machinery, power equipment, and innovative pharmaceuticals [3][5]. Sector-Specific Insights - The technology sector is expected to benefit from inflationary pressures, with upstream price increases in components like optical chips and PCBs showing greater elasticity [7]. - Investment opportunities in the semiconductor sector are anticipated, especially in storage chips (DRAM/SSD) driven by AI demand, and in domestic semiconductor equipment and materials [7][14]. - The robotics industry is seen as a significant area for investment, with leading global companies poised for breakthroughs in design and production [11][12]. Consumer Sector Trends - The consumer sector is entering a "post-consumption era," with opportunities arising from the restructuring of traditional consumer goods and retail channels, focusing on new consumer behaviors and preferences [19]. - Key areas of investment include innovative retail formats, smart product iterations, and emerging consumer categories driven by younger generations [19]. Healthcare Sector Focus - The pharmaceutical industry is expected to see significant developments, particularly in innovative drugs, with a focus on supply, demand, and payment dynamics [21]. - The recovery of the innovative drug supply chain is anticipated, with many companies nearing operational turning points that could lead to earnings surprises and valuation recoveries [21]. Fixed Income and Asset Allocation - The fixed income market is projected to maintain a low interest rate environment, with opportunities for bond trading and a focus on credit quality [28][33]. - A multi-asset allocation strategy is recommended, emphasizing a balance between equity and fixed income investments, with a focus on sectors that can provide stable returns amid economic fluctuations [35][38].