2025年社零同比增长3.7%，政策加码下消费动能将持续释放

Core Viewpoint - The data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a slowdown in retail sales growth, with a focus on boosting domestic consumption in response to external uncertainties and the impact of high tariffs on global trade [1][4][5] Group 1: Retail Sales Data - In December 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 39,398 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.7%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from November [1][4] - For the entire year of 2025, the retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.7%, slightly down by 0.3 percentage points compared to the first eleven months [1][4] Group 2: Domestic Consumption Strategy - The central economic work conference for 2026 emphasizes the importance of domestic demand, with a focus on building a strong domestic market as the primary task [5] - The "National Subsidy" policy is set to play a crucial role in stimulating domestic consumption, with a new round of policies officially launched on December 30, 2025 [5] Group 3: Fiscal Measures and Consumer Support - Fiscal spending to promote consumption is expected to increase from 300 billion yuan in the previous year to 500 billion yuan in 2026, expanding the scope from durable goods to general consumer goods and services [2][5] - The People's Bank of China will utilize 500 billion yuan in loans to support service consumption and elderly care, addressing the current high demand for services like tourism, education, and healthcare [2][5] Group 4: Supply and Demand Challenges - There are significant supply gaps in high-quality products and services, particularly in areas like housing, transportation, and cultural entertainment, which restrict consumer choices and willingness to spend [6] - Recommendations include accelerating the transformation of traditional industries towards higher quality and more personalized services, as well as innovating consumption scenarios to stimulate market activity [3][6] Group 5: Policy Focus on Human Investment - The emphasis on "investing in people" is expected to enhance consumer capacity, with potential increases in birth and early education subsidies, as well as adjustments to basic pensions, particularly for rural residents [2][5] - The integration of service consumption with "investing in people" is anticipated to be a key focus, with policies likely to support skill training and elderly care services [3][6]