于建勋：提振消费政策协同显效 消费市场实现扩容提质

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, various regions and sectors will implement policies to boost consumption, leading to enhanced market vitality and the continuous expansion and upgrading of the consumption market [1] Group 1: Consumption Scale and Market Dynamics - The total retail sales of consumer goods will exceed 50 trillion, reaching 50,120.2 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, accelerating by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous year [2] - Rural market sales will outpace urban sales, with rural retail sales growing by 4.1%, 0.5 percentage points higher than urban sales growth of 3.6% [2] - The county and township market will account for 38.7% of the total retail sales of consumer goods [2] Group 2: Service Retail Growth - Service retail will grow by 5.5%, with an acceleration of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous year, outpacing goods retail growth by 1.7 percentage points [3] - The film industry will see significant growth, with box office revenue reaching 51.83 billion, a 21.7% increase from the previous year [3] - Information consumption will continue to grow rapidly, with telecommunications and information services maintaining double-digit growth [3] Group 3: Upgrading and Replacement Sales - The "trade-in" policy will positively impact sales, with retail sales of limited enterprises growing by 3.4%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous year [4] - Retail sales of communication equipment and cultural office supplies will grow by 20.9% and 17.3%, respectively, with furniture sales increasing by 14.6% [4] - The retail volume of new energy passenger vehicles will reach 12.809 million, a 17.6% increase, with a penetration rate of 53.9%, up by 6.3 percentage points [4] Group 4: New Consumption Models - Online retail will grow by 8.6%, with physical goods online retail increasing by 5.2%, contributing 1.3 percentage points to the total retail sales [5] - The live commerce sector will see an 11.3% growth in transaction volume, while instant delivery services will also expand rapidly [5] - Physical retail stores will see a 1.7% increase in sales, with new retail formats like warehouse membership stores and unmanned stores experiencing double-digit growth [5] Group 5: Future Outlook - The consumption market will continue to grow steadily, supported by various policies, with an increasingly optimized supply system and upgraded consumption structure [6] - The trend of diversified consumption scenarios will further solidify the expansion and quality improvement of the consumption market in 2026 [6]