地缘因素扰动，避险需求降温，金价高位震荡

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced fluctuations last week, initially rising due to escalating U.S.-Iran relations and increasing interest rate cut expectations, reaching a high of $4,650 before dropping to $4,539 as tensions eased [1] - COMEX gold futures closed the week up 2.23% at $4,601.1 per ounce, while the Huaxia Gold ETF (518850) rose 2.73% and the Gold Stock ETF (159562) increased by 6.42% [1] - President Trump indicated that Iran has committed to stopping violence, leading to a significant reduction in risk premiums associated with geopolitical tensions, which had previously driven gold and silver prices higher [1] Group 2 - Analysis suggests that the global dollar reserve ratio continued to decline in Q2, and the U.S. fiscal deficit is growing, indicating a trend towards de-dollarization that benefits gold's monetary attributes [2] - It is expected that real interest rates will continue to decline by 2026, providing further medium-term support for gold [2] - Domestic demand for physical gold may be significantly impacted by new tax policies, and a potential decline in gold jewelry demand by 2026 needs to be monitored, particularly regarding central bank purchases and investment demand [2]