春节前后季节性累库 短期PTA期货或震荡运行

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The PTA industry is experiencing a decline in operating rates and a mixed outlook for supply and demand, with expectations of inventory accumulation post-Spring Festival and potential price fluctuations driven by cost factors and downstream demand [1][3]. Supply and Demand - As of January 16, PTA operating load is at 76.3%, down 1.9 percentage points week-on-week [1]. - The Zhuhai BP1 1.1 million ton PTA unit was shut down on November 6 and restarted on December 25, while the 2 1.25 million ton PTA unit reduced its load to 70% on the same date [1]. - The demand side shows high polyester operating rates, but a gradual decline in load is expected in late January due to negative feedback from terminal weaving [3]. Inventory and Pricing - As of January 16, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange PTA futures warehouse receipts totaled 104,318 contracts, a decrease of 198 contracts from the previous trading day [1]. - Recent PXN fluctuations have led to a slight recovery in PTA processing margins, with overall valuation remaining neutral to slightly high [3]. - The industry anticipates seasonal inventory accumulation before and after the Spring Festival, followed by a potential continuous inventory reduction as demand recovers [3]. Market Dynamics - Short-term PTA processing fees have returned to average levels, but inventory remains low, with more PTA units being shut down than restarted, leading to a slight reduction in supply [3]. - Downstream polyester companies are facing significant profit squeezes, which may force upstream raw material prices to adjust downward [3]. - The short-term outlook for PTA is expected to be volatile, with a cautious approach recommended due to potential risks associated with oil price fluctuations [3].