原油连涨带来支撑 贸易单位柴油库容率低位回升

Core Viewpoint - In early January, crude oil prices exhibited a trend of initial decline followed by a rise, reaching a three-month high, which positively influenced market sentiment and increased diesel inventory levels among trade units, although expectations for diesel demand weakened, limiting the overall price increase [3]. Group 1: Crude Oil Price Trends - International crude oil prices initially fell due to geopolitical concerns in South America and the Middle East, but later surged as tensions escalated, leading to a five-day consecutive increase [3]. - The domestic retail price adjustment for refined oil was suspended, transitioning from negative to positive changes in crude oil rates, which boosted market optimism [3]. Group 2: Diesel Inventory and Demand - As of January 15, 2026, diesel inventory levels among domestic trade units reached 29.65% of capacity, an increase of 0.55 percentage points from the previous month and 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - Despite the increase in inventory levels, diesel demand is expected to weaken as the Spring Festival approaches, leading to cautious operations among trade units [3][7]. Group 3: Price Dynamics - Diesel prices initially declined due to weak demand post-New Year, but the wholesale price pressure remained despite a mid-January rise in crude oil prices [4]. - The average theoretical profit for domestic refined diesel was reported at 1583 CNY/ton, reflecting a 4.28% increase from the previous month, while the profit for main diesel sales rose by 23.93% to 1279 CNY/ton [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The geopolitical situation remains uncertain, which may lead to fluctuating crude oil prices, but the fundamental supply-demand dynamics suggest significant upward pressure on prices [7]. - The expectation for a limited increase in domestic refined oil retail prices and a potential decline in diesel prices by approximately 100 CNY/ton in the latter part of January is noted, as demand continues to weaken [7].