聚合MDI：四季度倒“N”型走势 一季度或难乐观

Core Viewpoint - The fourth quarter of China's polymer MDI market experienced a decline followed by fluctuations and a subsequent drop, influenced by weak downstream demand and stable import supply, with cautious stocking behavior expected ahead of the new year [1][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - In the fourth quarter, the average price in the East China market was 14,617 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.26% month-on-month and 18.26% year-on-year [1]. - The market saw a high point in mid-December at 14,950 yuan/ton and a low point in late October at 14,300 yuan/ton [1]. - The market dynamics included a decline in October, weak fluctuations from late October to November, and a rise followed by a drop in December [1]. Group 2: Downstream Demand - Overall downstream demand was weak in the fourth quarter, with outdoor engineering demand declining due to continuous rainfall in October and entering a traditional off-season in November [3]. - The refrigerator and freezer industry faced a production decrease of 6.07% year-on-year, with output around 23.4 million units in October and November due to tightened consumer subsidy policies and increased tariffs in the U.S. [3]. - Export performance was poor, with a 35.63% year-on-year decrease in polymer MDI exports to 128,100 tons in October and November [3]. Group 3: Supply Factors - In mid-December, domestic and international manufacturers raised prices, and several MDI facilities were scheduled for maintenance, which provided some market support [4][6]. - Stable import supply during November and December, particularly from Covestro's Japanese sources, contributed to a bearish market sentiment, especially in late December [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Supply pressure is expected to increase in the first quarter of 2026 as three domestic MDI facilities with a total capacity of 2.06 million tons restart operations [8]. - Caution in stocking behavior from downstream and traders is anticipated, influenced by previous market experiences and the upcoming Chinese New Year [8][9]. - The overall trading environment may remain subdued, potentially leading to inventory accumulation by March 2026, with ongoing supply-demand imbalances in the polymer MDI market [9].