上海新房价格独涨二手房成交井喷，楼市“转折之年”来了？

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai real estate market demonstrates resilience and structural differentiation, with new home prices rising against a backdrop of national declines in real estate investment and sales [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - In December 2025, Shanghai's new residential sales prices increased by 4.8% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, making it the only first-tier city to achieve both increases [1]. - The total annual increase in new home prices for 2025 reached 5.7%, contrasting with declines in Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [1]. - The second-hand housing market in Shanghai showed a milder decline, with a 0.6% month-on-month drop in December 2025, better than the overall first-tier city average of 0.9% [1]. Group 2: Transaction Volume - In 2025, Shanghai's second-hand home transaction volume reached 254,000 units, marking a new high and surpassing the strong performance of 2022 [3]. - As of January 18, 2026, the monthly second-hand home registration volume reached 12,849 units, with expectations of exceeding 20,000 units for the third consecutive month [3]. - The increase in transaction volume is attributed to the seasonal demand for school district properties and the perception that prices have bottomed out, leading to a positive shift in seller attitudes [3]. Group 3: Policy and Market Dynamics - Continuous policy support, including historically low mortgage rates and targeted tax incentives, has lowered the barriers to home purchasing [3]. - Market research indicates a significant increase in inquiries for second-hand homes in key cities, particularly from families with multiple children and new residents, suggesting a shift from market observation to actual purchasing [3]. - The rental yield in 30 cities has risen to 2.06%, surpassing fixed deposit rates, indicating a potential market bottom [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that 2026 will be a critical year for confirming the bottom of the real estate market in Shanghai and nationwide [4]. - There is a consensus among real estate companies regarding price stabilization, with a narrowing of negotiation space for buyers [4]. - The focus of competition in the industry is expected to shift from price wars to service quality and product competitiveness [4].