10万亿度电，观察中国能源体系变革的窗口

Core Insights - China's total electricity consumption is projected to exceed 10 trillion kilowatt-hours by 2025, marking a significant milestone as it surpasses the combined electricity consumption of the EU, Russia, India, and Japan, and is more than double that of the United States [1] - The increase in electricity demand is driven by the rise of new productive forces, competitive pricing advantages, and the electrification of residential life, indicating a structural revolution towards a greener energy system [1] Group 1 - The contribution of the tertiary sector and urban residents to the annual electricity growth is 50%, highlighting their role as the main drivers of this increase [1] - The proliferation of electric vehicles and the emergence of new consumption scenarios, alongside the demand from emerging industries like AI and the digital economy, are accelerating the transition towards a high value-added industrial structure [1] Group 2 - By May 2025, China's cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation is expected to exceed 1 billion kilowatts, accounting for 30% of the total installed capacity and nearing half of the global share [2] - The share of thermal power generation is projected to decrease to approximately 40%, indicating a significant shift towards renewable energy sources [2] Group 3 - The transition to a new power system dominated by renewable energy sources is essential, addressing challenges such as the volatility of wind and solar power and the mismatch between energy supply and demand [2][3] - A new energy infrastructure that integrates generation, grid, load, and storage is necessary, focusing on four pillars: transitioning coal power, developing large-scale energy storage, creating a smart system for supply-demand balance, and optimizing transmission networks [2][3] Group 4 - The establishment of a unified national electricity market and the reform of pricing mechanisms are crucial for driving the green transition, ensuring that electricity prices reflect supply-demand dynamics and environmental costs [3] - The milestone of 10 trillion kilowatt-hours signifies not only a peak in energy production capacity but also the need for a modern energy system that is secure, efficient, clean, flexible, and interactive, supporting China's modernization efforts [4]