“强预期”与“弱需求”博弈 锌价可能阶段性回调

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in zinc futures prices indicates potential short-term volatility, with various institutions providing differing outlooks on future price movements [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 19, zinc futures experienced a sharp decline, with the main contract dropping to a low of 24,335.00 yuan and closing at 24,445.00 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 1.93% [1]. Group 2: Institutional Insights - Shenwan Hongyuan Futures: Anticipates a potential phase of price correction for zinc due to a combination of factors including a decrease in zinc concentrate processing fees, tight concentrate supply, and a high inventory of galvanized sheets. The overall supply-demand balance for zinc appears stable, suggesting a possible price pullback [2]. - Wheaton Precious Metals Futures: Highlights that zinc prices still have significant room for upward adjustment compared to copper and aluminum, despite a slight decrease in port inventories and processing fees. The current zinc-copper and zinc-aluminum ratios are at historical lows, indicating potential for price recovery [3]. - CICC Wealth Futures: Suggests that zinc prices may experience short-term fluctuations, driven by external factors such as expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and geopolitical risks. The market is currently facing a tug-of-war between strong expectations and weak demand, with domestic zinc supply tightening providing some support for prices [3].