中指研究院：2025年房地产销售8.4万亿收官 市场有望在“十五五”中后期逐步完成筑底

Core Insights - The overall real estate market in China is expected to continue its adjustment trend into 2025, with new residential property sales area projected at 880 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 8.7%, and sales revenue at 8.4 trillion yuan, down 12.6% [1][3] - Investment, new construction, and completion areas are expected to decrease by 17.2%, 20.4%, and 18.1% respectively, indicating a cautious approach by companies during this market adjustment phase [1][8][10] - The policy environment is signaling a "stabilization of expectations" for 2026, with measures aimed at boosting market confidence through demand and financing support [1][25] Demand - In 2025, the total sales area of new residential properties is expected to be 880 million square meters, down 8.7% year-on-year, with residential sales area at 733 million square meters, a decline of 9.2% [3][30] - The sales revenue for new residential properties is projected at 8.39 trillion yuan, reflecting a 12.6% decrease, with residential sales revenue at 7.33 trillion yuan, down 13.0% [3][30] Supply - Real estate development investment is anticipated to be 8.28 trillion yuan in 2025, a decrease of 17.2%, with residential development investment at 6.35 trillion yuan, down 16.3% [8][30] - The total construction area is expected to be 6.599 billion square meters, a decline of 10.0%, with residential construction area at 4.601 billion square meters, down 10.3% [10][30] Market Dynamics - The market is transitioning into a "stock era," with the proportion of second-hand housing transactions increasing, particularly in major cities where first-time buyers are increasingly opting for second-hand homes [7] - In 2025, the transaction volume of second-hand homes in 30 cities is expected to remain stable, with their market share rising to approximately 65%, an increase of about 4 percentage points from 2024 [7] Financial Aspects - The total funds available to real estate developers are projected to be 9.31 trillion yuan in 2025, down 13.4% year-on-year [16] - Domestic loans are expected to be 1.41 trillion yuan, a decrease of 7.3%, while self-raised funds are projected at 3.31 trillion yuan, down 12.2% [17][19] Future Outlook - For 2026, the real estate market is expected to show a continued decline in sales, with new construction remaining low and investment pressures persisting [26] - The market is anticipated to gradually stabilize as inventory is absorbed, policies are implemented, and social expectations improve, leading to a shift towards high-quality development [1][25][30]