Core Insights - The consumption market in China is expected to continue expanding and upgrading, driven by policies aimed at boosting consumption and improving people's livelihoods in 2025 [1] Group 1: Consumption Scale and Growth - The total retail sales of consumer goods are projected to exceed 50 trillion yuan, reaching 50,120.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, accelerating by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous year [2] - Retail sales in rural areas are growing faster than in urban areas, with rural retail sales increasing by 4.1%, outpacing urban growth of 3.6% by 0.5 percentage points [2] - The county and township market's share of total retail sales is expected to be 38.7% in 2025, indicating a steady release of consumption potential in these areas [2] Group 2: Service Retail Growth - Service retail is anticipated to grow by 5.5%, with an acceleration of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous year, outpacing goods retail growth by 1.7 percentage points [3] - The film industry is experiencing significant growth, with box office revenue reaching 51.83 billion yuan, a 21.7% increase from the previous year [3] - New service models such as online consultations and training are thriving, contributing to a continued rapid growth in information consumption [3] Group 3: Sales of Upgraded and Replacement Goods - The "trade-in" policy is showing positive effects, with retail sales of goods in key units increasing by 3.4%, an acceleration of 0.7 percentage points from the previous year [4] - Retail sales of communication equipment and cultural office supplies have surged by 20.9% and 17.3%, respectively, with furniture sales growing by 14.6% [4] - The retail volume of new energy passenger vehicles reached 12.809 million units, marking a 17.6% increase, with a penetration rate of 53.9%, up by 6.3 percentage points [4] Group 4: New Consumption Models and Trends - Online retail sales are expected to grow by 8.6%, with physical goods online retail increasing by 5.2%, contributing 1.3 percentage points to total retail sales [5] - The live-streaming e-commerce sector is thriving, with transaction volumes increasing by 11.3%, while instant delivery services are rapidly developing to meet consumer demands [5] - Physical retail stores are also seeing growth, with retail sales in key units increasing by 1.7%, driven by new business models that cater to quality and personalized consumer needs [5]
提振消费政策协同显效 消费市场实现扩容提质
Guo Jia Tong Ji Ju·2026-01-19 07:38