清华大学房地产研究中心主任吴璟：中国房地产市场修复取得重大成绩

Core Viewpoint - The stability of the real estate market in China is contingent upon the completion of market recovery and clarity in transformation, with significant achievements noted in 2025 and a positive outlook for 2026 [1] Short Cycle Analysis - The total transaction scale in the real estate market showed a clear stabilization trend in the first eleven months of 2025, with some major cities even experiencing slight year-on-year growth, indicating that sales stabilization precedes price stabilization [1] - Market differentiation has intensified, with more active performance in cities with faster-growing new economic drivers and areas with lower supply and inventory pressures, influenced by localized government policies [2] - Policies aimed at controlling supply growth and reducing inventory have been effective, leading to rational behavior among enterprises, with real estate development investment indicators, such as new construction area, declining in 2025 and likely continuing into 2026 [2] - The inventory reduction measures have shown results, with the nationwide unsold commercial housing area decreasing by approximately 3 million square meters from the end of October to the end of November 2025, reflecting the effectiveness of supply-side control measures and demand-side stimulus [2] Long Cycle Analysis - The real estate market is gradually maturing through transformation, with risk clearance efforts in 2025 leading to social and economic stability, laying a solid foundation for future development [3] - Debt restructuring among some real estate companies has achieved positive results, contributing to market recovery [3] - The focus on meeting residents' needs for quality living has become a key theme in the 2025 real estate market, with developers recognizing this as a crucial growth point for the industry's future [3] - Urban renewal initiatives are expected to provide significant new development opportunities for traditional industries, including real estate and construction [3]