Di Yi Cai Jing·2026-01-19 08:34Core Viewpoint - Tencent Holdings has experienced a downward trend in stock price despite positive business developments and favorable analyst reports, indicating a cautious market sentiment towards the stock [2][3][4]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Tencent's stock reached a peak of 639 HKD on January 13, followed by five consecutive days of decline, dropping below the 610 HKD mark [2]. - Since the peak of 683 HKD on October 2, 2025, Tencent's stock has shown a pattern of lower highs, with significant resistance levels at 683 HKD, 662 HKD, and 639 HKD [2]. - Despite a more than twofold increase in stock price since October 2022, recent profit-taking and reduced inflow from southbound funds have led to weaker performance compared to the Hang Seng Index [2]. Group 2: Analyst Reports and Business Developments - On January 15, Tencent shared significant updates during the WeChat Open Class PRO event, including over 5 billion uses of WeChat mini-programs globally and a 320% increase in transaction volume for WeChat stores from August to December 2025 [3]. - CICC maintained a "outperform" rating for Tencent with a target price of 700 HKD, while slightly adjusting revenue forecasts for 2026 down by 1% to 831.7 billion HKD [3]. - UBS highlighted Tencent's restructuring in its AI division and the recruitment of top talent, reinforcing its position as a preferred stock with a target price of 780 HKD [4]. Group 3: Share Buybacks and Market Sentiment - Tencent has been actively repurchasing shares, buying back 1.017 million shares at prices between 619 HKD and 632 HKD on January 15, totaling 636 million HKD [5]. - Since November 18, 2025, Tencent has repurchased over 40 million shares for more than 25 billion HKD, reflecting confidence in its long-term value [5]. - Analysts suggest that while Tencent's stock has lagged recently, it has performed better than many large tech stocks since its low point below 200 HKD at the end of 2022, indicating a need for time to digest profit-taking [5].