成本支撑力度不强 1月焦炭继续上行空间有限

Group 1 - The benchmark price of coke on January 19 is 1391.25 CNY/ton, a decrease of 3.55% compared to the beginning of the month (1442.50 CNY/ton) [1] - On January 19, the main futures contract for coke closed at 1721.0 CNY/ton, with a decline of 1.04%, reaching a high of 1762.0 CNY/ton and a low of 1713.5 CNY/ton, with a trading volume of 23,136 lots [2] - In December, China's coke and semi-coke exports reached 1 million tons, an increase of 80.2% year-on-year, while the total export volume for the year was 7.94 million tons, a decrease of 4.5% year-on-year [3] Group 2 - The analysis from a futures research report indicates that production cuts in coking plants have led to a decrease in coke output, resulting in a marginal improvement in supply and demand, with expectations for a price increase in the near term [4] - The anticipated price increase is expected to be limited, and after the adjustment of coke basis, the momentum for further price increases may weaken [4] - With a significant increase in inventory on the cost side, the support for coke prices from costs is also expected to be weak, indicating limited upward space for coke prices in January [4]