中金：白银关税暂缓 市场情绪降温

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that the Trump administration's decision to postpone tariffs on critical minerals may lead to a cooling of speculative sentiment in the precious metals market, with a more stable upward movement expected for gold prices this year [1] Group 1: Precious Metals Market Dynamics - The prices of precious metals like silver and gold have shown strong performance since December, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and inventory tightness during delivery periods [1] - Silver inventory at the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) increased to 27,800 tons by the end of last year, but actual inventory levels remain constrained due to simultaneous increases in U.S. and European silver ETFs [1][2] - The market anticipates the U.S. government's tariff policy on critical minerals to be finalized soon, with a significant increase in actual delivery demand for COMEX silver futures observed in early January [2] Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Global macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical risks have led to a rise in safe-haven trading, supporting demand for precious metals [2] - The Trump administration's announcement on January 14 to delay tariff decisions may reduce short-term trade disruption risks, potentially cooling speculative sentiment in the silver market [3] Group 3: Future Outlook for Gold and Silver - CICC believes that gold prices may experience a more stable upward trend compared to silver, with potential adjustments providing investment opportunities [4] - The market's cautious pricing of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve suggests limited adjustment space for gold, while silver faces ongoing inventory concerns and tariff risks, indicating greater price volatility [4]