吴璟：2025年房地产市场呈现四个积极现象

Core Insights - The real estate market in China is showing signs of stabilization amidst fluctuations, with four positive phenomena observed in 2025 that lay a foundation for a more stable market in 2026 [1][3]. Short-term Trends - The overall transaction scale in the real estate market is stabilizing, with combined sales of new and second-hand homes showing signs of slight growth in major cities [3]. - There is an increasing divergence between cities and within different districts of cities, driven by macroeconomic factors and previous inventory levels [3]. - Policies aimed at controlling supply and reducing inventory are having a positive impact on market recovery [3][4]. Inventory Trends - As of the end of November 2025, the nationwide inventory of unsold commercial housing decreased by 3.01 million square meters compared to the end of October, indicating effective measures on both supply and demand sides [4]. Long-term Trends - The transition from old to new models in the real estate sector is becoming clearer, with significant achievements noted during the transition from the "14th Five-Year Plan" to the "15th Five-Year Plan" [5]. - The completion of housing delivery tasks is a landmark event, indicating a reduction in risks associated with the old model characterized by high debt, leverage, and turnover [5]. - The new development model emphasizes the return of real estate to its social welfare role, focusing on the construction of "good houses" that are safe, comfortable, green, and smart [5]. - Urban development is shifting from large-scale expansion to a focus on quality development through urban renewal, providing new opportunities for traditional industries [5]. Policy Environment - The policy toolbox for both supply and demand sides is continuously improving, creating a favorable environment for market recovery, with ongoing marginal improvements expected to work in synergy [6].