金源灿:长上影大阳定调多头 黄金本周剑指4650关口

Core Viewpoint - The gold market has maintained a strong upward trend since the beginning of 2026, with last week's performance solidifying the bullish momentum despite short-term resistance [1][5]. Market Performance - Gold opened strong at 4520.9 points, briefly retracing to 4510.6 points before a significant rally, reaching a peak of 4643.8 points, marking a new high for the period [1][5]. - The closing price was 4595.5 points, forming a large bullish candlestick with a long upper shadow, indicating both strong bullish control and short-term resistance above 4640 points [2][6]. Market Dynamics - The candlestick pattern reflects intense competition between bulls and bears, with the bullish entity indicating overall dominance and strong buying interest, while the long upper shadow suggests notable resistance above 4640 points [2][6]. - The high-level pullback is interpreted as a trial and washout action by major players, with volume increasing during the rally and decreasing during the pullback, confirming the bullish trend [2][6]. Macro and Funding Support - The bullish support for gold remains intact, driven by strategic demand from global central banks, which purchased over 1136 tons of gold in 2025, a record high, with China increasing its holdings for 14 consecutive months [2][6]. - Expectations of 2-3 interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 are anticipated to lower the cost of holding gold, alongside persistent high U.S. debt levels and geopolitical risks, enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2][6]. Technical Analysis - The technical outlook suggests a high probability of continued bullish momentum, with gold prices above the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, and the Bollinger Bands opening upwards [3][7]. - Key resistance is identified at 4643.8 points, while the 4590-4580 range serves as critical support, which, if maintained, could provide a solid foundation for further upward movement [3][7]. Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy involves focusing on buying opportunities during pullbacks, with suggested entry around 4600 points and a strict stop-loss set below 4590 points to mitigate risks [3][7]. - The first target for upward movement is set at 4630 points, with potential for further gains if the price breaks above this level [3][7].