顶级经济学家驳斥“大而不倒”论：债务危机或让美国掉进大萧条深渊

Core Viewpoint - A leading economist warns that the U.S. government's $38.5 trillion debt is stifling the "American Dream," and if the ongoing debt crisis escalates, the U.S. may face a full-blown economic depression [1][6] Group 1: Economic Challenges - The collapse of the "American Dream" is attributed to various factors, including housing inventory issues and unequal distribution of educational resources [1][6] - Rising costs of retirement, childcare, and car ownership lead many to believe that $5 million in the bank is necessary to achieve the prosperity depicted by the "American Dream" [1][6] - Kurt Couchman from the America Prosperity Foundation highlights that the root of these challenges lies in the massive debt scale, with interest payments on the debt projected to reach $276 billion by Q4 2025 [1][6] Group 2: Debt and Economic Growth - Couchman states that the expanding debt could trigger a bond market crisis, resulting in catastrophic consequences for the American public [2][7] - The real concern for economists is not the total debt amount but the debt-to-GDP ratio, which, if it exceeds a certain threshold, will slow economic growth [8] - A significant imbalance in this ratio could lead to reduced development opportunities, declining wage levels, and suppressed productivity growth [8] Group 3: Potential Outcomes - In the worst-case scenario, the U.S. may struggle to find buyers for its debt, leading to forced cuts in fiscal spending, higher borrowing costs, or increased money supply, all of which could trigger inflation or hyperinflation [8][9] - Couchman warns that the U.S. could face not just a recession but potentially a severe recession or depression, with global economic turmoil posing real security risks [9] Group 4: Solutions and Recommendations - The entrenched spending habits of the U.S. government are difficult to change, and there is no solution that satisfies both the need for fiscal balance and voter approval [10] - Couchman suggests improving fiscal transparency as a straightforward solution, advocating for a comprehensive budget that clearly outlines all income and expenditure items [10] - This transparency would enable Congress to manage budgets effectively and facilitate genuine discussions on policy priorities, distinguishing between necessary and non-essential expenditures [10]