突发重挫！锡镍价格为何同步“跳水”？反弹曙光何在？

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in tin and nickel prices in the Yangtze spot market is attributed to a combination of macroeconomic factors, supply-demand dynamics, and regulatory actions, leading to increased market divergence regarding future trends [1] Macroeconomic Pressure - The US dollar index remains strong around 99.40, nearing a six-week high, which is a key factor suppressing non-ferrous metal prices [2] - Market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy have solidified, with a 95% probability of maintaining rates in January and a 78.4% probability in March, pushing back rate cut expectations to mid-year [2] Supply and Demand Logic - Tin prices are pressured by increased supply expectations from Myanmar and Indonesia, with imports from Myanmar reaching 7,190 tons in November, alleviating previous supply tightness [3] - Demand for tin is weakening as the "export window" for photovoltaic solder approaches its end, and speculative demand in AI and semiconductor sectors is also declining [3] - Nickel prices are affected by high inventory levels, with LME nickel stocks rising to 285,732 tons, and weak demand from the electric vehicle sector, which saw a 38% year-on-year drop in retail sales in early January [3] Industry Chain Impact - Global visible tin inventories are at approximately 12,000 tons, down over 70% from historical highs, but supply improvements are evident with increased mining quotas expected from Indonesia [4] - The nickel industry faces challenges with overcapacity in smelting and weak demand from the stainless steel and electric vehicle sectors, leading to significant operational pressures across the supply chain [5] Corporate Dynamics - Leading companies like Yunnan Tin Company reported a 35.99% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, but current price declines may impact short-term profitability [6] - The second-largest tin producer, Xinyi Silver Tin, is expanding its capacity and plans to increase tin concentrate production to 20,000 tons per year through acquisitions [6] - Nickel industry leader Tsingshan Group is well-positioned due to its extensive operations in Indonesia, with ongoing projects in high-grade nickel and battery-grade nickel expected to benefit from future demand recovery [6] Outlook and Strategy - Analysts predict that tin and nickel prices will maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term, with tin prices likely oscillating between 370,000 and 400,000 yuan per ton [7] - Nickel prices are expected to remain under pressure, with key support around 141,000 yuan per ton, and potential declines to 140,000 yuan if demand does not improve [7] - Investors are advised to lower leverage and control positions, focusing on leading companies with resource advantages and cost benefits while avoiding speculative trades [8]