兴证策略张启尧团队：2026年资金面展望

Core Viewpoint - The influx of various funds into the market since 2025 is expected to continue, driven by domestic wealth reallocation, the return of foreign capital, and the steady entry of long-term funds such as insurance and state-owned enterprises, which will further enhance market dynamics and create positive feedback loops [1][67]. Group 1: Characteristics of Fund Inflow - The current round of fund inflow exhibits three notable characteristics: the weakening of real estate investment attributes leads to longer-term capital market investments by residents, traditional industry overcapacity is gradually being cleared, and the decline in traditional savings and financial product yields makes equity asset allocation inevitable [4][67]. - The resonance of various funds entering the market is more pronounced, with less impact from the slowdown of single fund inflows, supported by long-term capital, resulting in stronger market resilience and continuity compared to previous cycles [6][69]. - Major institutions currently hold around 8% of the free float market value of all A-shares, indicating a balanced pricing power among them, with significant marginal inflows likely to lead market trends [6][69]. Group 2: Active Equity Funds - Active equity funds are expected to see significant marginal improvement in 2026, transitioning from a net outflow of 400 billion yuan in 2025 to a net inflow of 200 billion yuan, driven by the recovery of excess returns and new regulations aligning interests between fund managers and investors [8][71]. - The issuance of active equity funds is recovering, with the first factor being the return of excess returns, as investors compare active and passive funds, favoring those that consistently generate alpha [9][72]. - The outlook for 2026 suggests that high-growth sectors such as AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption will enhance the effectiveness of investment, further driving the return of excess returns for active funds [11][73]. Group 3: Foreign Capital - The combination of overseas liquidity easing, renminbi appreciation, and the recovery of PPI is expected to increase foreign capital's willingness to invest in A-shares [21][82]. - The anticipated continuation of loose overseas liquidity, with expectations of two to three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, will likely encourage foreign capital to flow back into Chinese assets [23][84]. - The recovery of domestic PPI is expected to break the fundamental concerns that have limited foreign capital inflow, with overseas pension funds and sovereign wealth funds likely becoming the main drivers of foreign capital returning to A-shares [28][89]. Group 4: Insurance Capital - Insurance capital is expected to continue increasing its allocation to equity assets, with a projected increase of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan in A+H stocks in 2026, driven by high premium income and policy guidance [30][96]. - The proportion of equity assets held by insurance capital has risen significantly to 15.5%, nearing historical highs, with stock holdings reaching 10% [30][91]. - Smaller insurance companies are anticipated to become the main contributors to equity allocation in 2026, benefiting from policy support and market dynamics [34][95]. Group 5: Private Equity - The demand for financial asset allocation from high-net-worth individuals is expected to support continued net inflows into private equity, driven by declining returns from real estate and industrial investments [38][99]. - The management scale of private equity has seen a significant increase, with stock allocations rising to around 65%, indicating strong market participation [38][99]. - The growth in private equity is primarily demand-driven, reflecting a stronger willingness of high-net-worth individuals to enter the market [38][99].