Mortgage and refinance interest rates today, January 19, 2026: Rates fall by over 80 basis points in 6 months

Core Insights - Mortgage rates are decreasing, with the average 30-year fixed rate dropping by 83 basis points to 5.90% and the 15-year fixed rate falling by 59 basis points to 5.36% over the last six months, indicating a favorable time for home buying or refinancing [1] Current Mortgage Rates - The current national average mortgage rates are as follows: 30-year fixed at 5.90%, 15-year fixed at 5.36%, and 5/1 ARM at 6.11% [5][18] - The 30-year fixed mortgage is the most popular due to lower monthly payments, while the 15-year fixed offers a lower interest rate but higher monthly payments [8][9] Refinance Rates - Today's mortgage refinance rates are generally higher than purchase rates, although this is not always the case [3] - The average refinance rates are not explicitly stated but are implied to follow similar trends as purchase rates [3] Adjustable Mortgage Rates - Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) typically start with lower rates than fixed rates but carry the risk of future rate increases after the initial lock period [11][12] - Recent trends show that ARM rates can sometimes be similar to or higher than fixed rates, necessitating careful comparison among lenders [13] Factors Influencing Mortgage Rates - Lenders offer the lowest rates to borrowers with higher down payments, excellent credit scores, and low debt-to-income ratios [14] - Options for reducing interest rates include paying for discount points at closing or utilizing temporary buydowns [15][16] Future Rate Predictions - The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) forecasts that the 30-year mortgage rate will remain near 6.4% through 2026, while Fannie Mae predicts rates above 6% next year, potentially dipping to 5.9% in Q4 2026 [20]