Industrial Securities(SH:601377) 智通财经网·2026-01-19 11:11Core Viewpoint - The report from Industrial Securities indicates that since 2025, various types of capital have accelerated their entry into the market, driving indices to new ten-year highs. The influx of incremental capital is expected to continue this year, supported by domestic wealth reallocation, active equity fund returns, and foreign capital returning to Chinese assets [1]. Group 1: Capital Inflow Predictions - Public funds are expected to stabilize and recover, with new active equity funds projected to reach 5 trillion yuan by 2026, while existing funds may see a net redemption of around 2 trillion yuan [3]. - Insurance capital is anticipated to increase its stock market investments significantly, with net inflows expected to reach 12 trillion yuan by 2026 due to high premium income and supportive policies [3]. - Foreign capital is projected to return to the A-share market, with an estimated inflow of around 1 trillion yuan, driven by favorable conditions such as U.S. interest rate cuts and the undervaluation of the RMB [3][21]. Group 2: Characteristics of Current Capital Inflows - The current market shows a notable characteristic of synchronized capital inflows from various sources, reducing the impact of any single capital flow slowdown. This includes contributions from insurance, ETFs, private equity, and margin financing [5]. - Major institutional holdings account for approximately 8% of the free float market capitalization of the entire A-share market, indicating a balanced pricing power among different types of capital [5]. Group 3: Active Equity Funds - Active equity funds are expected to transition from significant net outflows to small net inflows by 2026, driven by improved excess returns and the establishment of trust between fund managers and investors [8][9]. - The active equity funds are projected to see a monthly issuance of 300-500 billion yuan, with net inflows of around 2 trillion yuan anticipated by 2026 [17]. Group 4: Insurance Capital Trends - Insurance capital is expected to continue its systematic allocation to equity assets, with a projected increase of 1.2 trillion yuan in A+H shares by 2026, driven by high premium income and regulatory encouragement [32][40]. - The proportion of equity assets held by insurance capital has risen to 15.5%, nearing historical highs, with a significant focus on high-dividend stocks [35]. Group 5: Private Equity and Fund Management - Private equity funds are experiencing a resurgence in net inflows, driven by high-net-worth individuals seeking financial asset allocations amid declining returns from real estate and traditional industries [42]. - The management scale of private equity funds has increased significantly, with a notable rise in stock positions, indicating strong demand from high-net-worth individuals [42]. Group 6: Margin Financing and ETF Trends - Margin financing has seen rapid growth, but the increase in leverage poses risks to market stability. Future inflows may slow, but overall totals are expected to remain stable [46]. - ETFs are shifting from broad index purchases to industry and thematic investments, with significant net inflows into thematic ETFs, indicating changing investor preferences [49][51]. Group 7: National Team and Long-term Capital - The national team is playing a stabilizing role in the market, providing liquidity support during downturns and preventing overheating during upswings, with significant holdings in stock ETFs [54]. - Policies are being implemented to encourage long-term capital inflows, particularly from social security and pension funds, which are expected to increase their equity allocations [59][61].