GGII：2025年中国锂电池隔膜出货量同比增45.4% 供需由宽松转向紧平衡

Core Insights - The Chinese lithium battery separator industry is expected to see a significant increase in shipment volume, reaching 32.3 billion square meters in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 45.4% [1] - The supply-demand dynamics are shifting from a loose to a tight balance, with leading companies operating at full capacity, resulting in a surge in capacity utilization rates [1][3] - The price of separators remains low, with only a slight rebound in the second half of the year for wet-process separators, indicating that a comprehensive price increase period has not yet begun [1] Industry Structure - The separator industry is undergoing structural changes, with the market share of dry-process separators dropping below 18% in 2025, while wet-process separators are expected to dominate with an increase in market share from 78% to 82.6% [1] Key Drivers - The cost-performance advantage of wet-process separators has become more pronounced, leading to a price gap reduction to 0.15 yuan per square meter, accelerating customer transitions [2] - Upgraded downstream demand, particularly in the energy storage sector, where 314Ah lithium batteries account for over 70%, is driving the increased application of wet-process separators due to their higher stability and consistency requirements [2] Supply-Demand Dynamics - The capacity utilization rate in the separator industry is gradually increasing, with leading wet-process companies operating at full capacity since September, while some have started outsourcing production [3] - The industry is experiencing a tight balance, with wet-process separator capacity utilization expected to exceed 80% in Q4 2025, approaching the high point of 2022 [3][5] Future Outlook - The separator industry is projected to maintain high prosperity in 2026, with capacity utilization rates expected to rise by 7-10 percentage points, and wet-process utilization potentially exceeding 85% [6] - Prices are anticipated to recover from current lows, with wet-process prices expected to increase by 10-20% year-on-year in 2026 as the market remains tight [6] - There will be a faster penetration of high-end products, with the application of 5μm high-puncture wet-process separators expected to exceed 50% [6] - Demand for high thermal shrinkage separators is expected to rise, particularly with the scaling of silicon-carbon anodes, making 180°C thermal shrinkage separators a competitive focus [6]