IMF重磅预警：AI泡沫与地缘冲突恐成全球经济“致命软肋”

Core Insights - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slightly raised its global economic growth forecast for this year to 3.3%, up from the previous prediction of 3.1% made in October last year [1] - The IMF warns that concerns over an artificial intelligence (AI) bubble, along with trade and geopolitical tensions, remain risks to the global economy [1] Economic Growth Projections - Following the World Bank, the IMF has also upgraded its global economic outlook, with a more optimistic forecast compared to the World Bank's prediction of 2.6% growth for this year [3] - In the United States, supported by fiscal policy and lower policy rates, the IMF predicts a growth rate of 2.4% in 2026, an increase from the previous forecast of 2.1% [3] - The IMF expects the Eurozone growth rate to be 1.3% this year [3] Risks and Vulnerabilities - The IMF highlights that while global growth has shown remarkable resilience amid trade disruptions, there are underlying vulnerabilities associated with high investment concentration in the technology sector [2] - The potential for a "sudden" market downturn exists if the anticipated productivity gains from new technologies, such as AI, do not materialize, which could weaken household wealth [1] - The IMF notes that the impacts of tariffs and uncertainty are expected to diminish this year and next, but new trade disputes may arise, leading to potential declines in corporate profit margins and persistent price pressures [2]