Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market has experienced significant volatility in early 2026, with prices fluctuating dramatically within a short period, raising questions about future price trends and production plans in the lithium battery sector [1][2][3] Price Fluctuations - On January 5, 2026, lithium carbonate futures started at 122,800 yuan/ton and peaked at 174,100 yuan/ton by January 13, marking a nearly two-year high [2] - Following a decline in new energy vehicle sales data, prices dropped to 146,200 yuan/ton on January 16, reflecting an 8.99% decrease and over a 16% drop from the peak [2][3] Production Stability - Despite price volatility, lithium salt projects in production have shown resilience, with companies maintaining their construction and production schedules [3] - The Guocheng Lithium Industry's 200,000-ton lithium salt project is expected to reach full production by mid-2026, supported by substantial resource reserves [3][4] Competitive Landscape - The industry is facing increasing competition, with multiple companies planning significant production capacities within the same region, leading to concerns about capacity absorption [6] - Companies are focusing on building cost advantages through innovative production methods, such as the circular economy model employed by Chuanfa Longmang, which reduces production costs significantly [5][6] Future Demand and Market Dynamics - The lithium battery market is expected to balance supply and demand by 2026, although recent data indicates a decline in new energy vehicle sales, which could impact future demand [6][7] - Companies are looking towards the energy storage sector as a new growth area, with predictions of a 30% increase in demand for battery-grade lithium carbonate in 2026 [7][8] Technological Evolution - The potential emergence of solid-state batteries could significantly increase the demand for lithium carbonate, as it constitutes a larger portion of the total cost in these batteries compared to liquid batteries [8][9]
碳酸锂急涨急跌，上游扩产为何热度不减？ 每经记者实地调研：普遍预期2026年产销趋于平衡
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen·2026-01-19 13:07