放心吧，我们不是日本，也不会有“失去的三十年”

Core Viewpoint - The comparison between the current economic situation and Japan's lost decade is misleading and ignores critical macroeconomic factors [1][12][21] Group 1: Economic Comparison - The notion of a "lost thirty years" stems from Japan's real estate bubble collapse, which has led to significant declines in property prices in recent years [3][14] - Similar economic phenomena such as asset price declines, credit contraction, and weak consumption occur globally following significant real estate price drops [3][14] Group 2: Logical Fallacies - The absence of similar comparisons for the U.S. post-2008 housing crisis highlights the flawed logic in equating the current situation with Japan's [4][14] - Japan is not a comparable nation to China; the appropriate comparison would be with the U.S., as Japan lacks the same level of economic independence [5][15] Group 3: Key Differences - China is a peer nuclear power to the U.S., while Japan operates as an economic and military dependency of the U.S. [7][17] - Japan's inability to independently develop key industries, such as aerospace, due to U.S. restrictions, contrasts sharply with China's industrial capabilities [8][19] Group 4: Market Size and Economic Power - Japan's market of 100 million people cannot sustain its industrial capacity, whereas China's 1.4 billion population supports a robust industrial ecosystem [9][19] - China has become the world's largest consumer market and a key trading partner for surrounding regions, enhancing its economic resilience [10][19] Group 5: Future Outlook - The current economic downturn is a phase that will lead to a new cycle starting in 2026, and it is crucial not to adopt a defeatist mindset akin to Japan's past [11][21] - China's goals are focused on national rejuvenation and global aspirations, contrasting with Japan's historical struggles for autonomy [22][23]