恒旭资本朱家春：长期资金将向头部机构和优质项目集中

Core Insights - The venture capital market in 2026 is expected to exhibit characteristics of "long-term, professional, and structured" investment, with a focus on balancing "certainty" and "growth" in investment strategies [1][4]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Impact - The macroeconomic outlook for 2026 is anticipated to follow a trend of "moderate recovery and structural optimization," which will influence the venture capital market by emphasizing "value discovery" and "value creation" [2][3]. - The funding supply side will see increased willingness from long-term capital sources like national mother funds and insurance, focusing on sectors with genuine technological barriers, leading to a more pronounced "80/20" market split [3]. Group 2: Investment Logic and Strategies - The investment logic will shift to emphasize a balance between "certainty" and "growth," directing funds towards sectors representing new productive forces with clear commercialization prospects [4][6]. - Investment themes will deepen from broad "hard technology" concepts to specific technological breakthroughs and key nodes in domestic substitution, with a heightened demand for general partners (GPs) to possess deep industry insights and real empowerment capabilities [4][6]. Group 3: Market Opportunities and Challenges - Global investment in AI and other frontier technologies will accelerate the maturity of related industrial chains, providing broader markets for China's hard technology enterprises [5]. - The competitive landscape in technology will remain intense, necessitating venture capital firms to have deeper technical insights to identify and support companies with genuine original technologies [5]. Group 4: Fundraising and Investment Pace - The fundraising market in 2026 will continue to reflect "long-term, professional, and structured" characteristics, with government investment funds reforming to better align with the long cycles and high risks of equity investment [6][8]. - The company aims to expand its management scale and maintain a steady investment pace, focusing on "new productive forces" and health consumption sectors, with plans to increase early-stage investments [8]. Group 5: Exit Environment - The exit environment in 2026 is expected to become more diversified, with IPOs remaining a key exit channel, but the importance of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and other exit strategies will continue to rise [9][10]. - The company plans to enhance its proactive M&A exit strategy, focusing on potential synergies between portfolio companies and industry giants from the investment stage [10].