中国粗钢产量自2020年来首次跌破10亿吨

Core Viewpoint - China's crude steel production has declined for the first time below 1 billion tons since 2020, with a total output of approximately 961 million tons in 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 4.4% [1][2]. Group 1: Production Trends - Since 2020, crude steel production has generally been on a downward trend, with a cumulative decrease of 92.19 million tons from 2020 to 2025 [2]. - The production in 2023 was relatively stable compared to previous years, but a further decline is expected in the following years [2][3]. Group 2: Policy Impact - The "dual control" policy on production capacity and output has been a significant factor in the decline of crude steel production, particularly since the introduction of carbon neutrality goals in 2020 [4]. - The National Development and Reform Commission has confirmed that production control will continue through 2025, emphasizing a "reduction development" approach [4]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has set clear production control requirements, prohibiting new capacity and promoting the reduction of excess capacity [4]. Group 3: Demand Changes - The demand structure for steel is undergoing significant changes, with a notable decline in demand for construction steel due to the downturn in the real estate sector, leading to a 19.37% drop in 2024 and an 18.14% decline in the first half of 2025 [5][6]. - Although the manufacturing sector's demand for steel has increased, it is insufficient to offset the decline in construction steel demand [5][6]. Group 4: Export Dynamics - Exports have become a crucial outlet for the steel industry, with a 6.7% year-on-year increase in steel exports in the first eleven months of 2025, totaling 10.8 million tons [6]. - However, international trade disputes and tariff barriers pose challenges to sustaining high export levels, with new export license management set to begin in 2026 [6].