ETF日报：在市场流动性充裕、风险偏好修复的环境下，A股仍有继续上攻的动力

Market Overview - The A-share market saw a slight increase today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.29% to 4114.00 points and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.09% to 14294.05 points. The total trading volume was 27,322 billion yuan, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous trading day. Overall, there were more gainers than losers, with the electric grid equipment and military industry sectors leading the gains, while previously high-performing internet and cultural media sectors experienced a pullback [1][11]. Military Industry - The military equipment sector performed strongly in the afternoon, driven by unique industry logic and recent event catalysts. The current military market trend is supported by the dual drivers of "commercial aerospace" and expectations from the "14th Five-Year Plan." The International Telecommunication Union (ITU) reported that China has planned to deploy over 200,000 satellites by December 2025, marking a significant acceleration in low-orbit satellite internet construction, which will create substantial demand for satellite manufacturing, rocket launches, and ground equipment [3][13]. - The military industry is expected to enter a new upcycle, with high expectations for the development and procurement of new-generation equipment as 2026 marks a key year in the "14th Five-Year Plan." The global military expenditure is entering a new upward phase, reinforcing the long-term investment logic in the defense industry [3][13]. Electric Grid Equipment - The electric grid ETF (561380) saw a significant increase of over 7% today, driven by the "AI power shortage" narrative and the release of the State Grid's "14th Five-Year Plan" investment plan. The electric grid equipment sector is entering a long-term upcycle due to the global energy transition and the explosion of AI computing power [5][15]. - The investment logic for the electric grid equipment sector has evolved from solely relying on domestic infrastructure to a dual benefit of "domestic grid upgrades + overseas equipment exports." The State Grid's fixed asset investment during the "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase compared to the previous plan, ensuring high industry prosperity for the next five years [5][15]. - The high energy consumption characteristics of AI data centers are reshaping the global power supply and demand landscape. China is becoming a key player in global grid construction, with transformer exports reaching 57.86 billion yuan in the first 11 months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 36.3% [6][16]. Gold Sector - The gold fund ETF (518800) rose by 1.59%, and the gold stock ETF (517400) increased by 2.73%. The ongoing geopolitical risks, including conflicts in the Middle East and trade tensions, are driving demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. The recent rise in gold prices may face short-term profit-taking risks, but the long-term support for gold prices remains strong due to the Fed's interest rate cut cycle and increasing global uncertainties [17][18]. Photovoltaic Industry - The photovoltaic 50 ETF (159864) increased by 2.03%. The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate for photovoltaic products starting April 1, 2026. This is expected to lead to a rapid increase in overseas export volumes in the short term, as companies rush to place orders before the cost increase takes effect [19][20]. - The "space photovoltaic" theme is gaining traction, with a significant increase in satellite launches and demand for GW-level space photovoltaic solutions. SpaceX has identified the P-type HJT battery technology route for large-scale economic production of space solar cells, marking a potential turning point for the industry [19][20].