AES vs. DUK: Which Is Better Positioned for Rising Power Demand?

Core Insights - The demand for clean electricity is accelerating globally, driven by structural trends and technological advancements, making utility companies like AES Corporation and Duke Energy attractive investment opportunities due to their strong positioning in the energy transition [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - The rapid expansion of AI-powered data centers is a major catalyst for increased electricity demand, requiring substantial and consistent power loads [2] - U.S. electric utilities are evolving beyond traditional income sources due to climate measures and federal incentives, positioning themselves for steady growth in the clean energy market [3] - Utilities are expanding generation capacity and grid infrastructure to meet rising electricity consumption, particularly from data centers [10] Group 2: AES Corporation - AES is benefiting from the growing demand from data centers, securing long-term contracts (PPAs) and positioning itself as a key partner in the tech industry's expansion, with 2.2 GW of signed contracts, including 1.6 GW with data center customers [4][5] - AES has a project backlog of 11.1 GW under signed PPAs and has completed 2.9 GW of construction as of September 30, 2025 [4] - AES has a forward P/E of 6x and a dividend yield of 4.96%, alongside a long-term earnings growth rate of 11.17% [10][15][16] Group 3: Duke Energy - Duke Energy is proposing new rate structures to efficiently manage large data center loads, which will accelerate necessary grid upgrades [6] - The company filed a request with the North Carolina Utilities Commission to revise electric rates to secure funding for significant grid upgrades, focusing on providing reliable and scalable power for data centers [7] - Duke Energy's Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 EPS indicates a year-over-year rise of 6.15%, with a long-term earnings growth rate of 6.87% [9][12] Group 4: Comparative Analysis - AES has a higher return on equity (ROE) of 18.83% compared to Duke Energy's 9.98%, indicating more efficient utilization of shareholders' funds [13] - Both companies have high debt levels, with AES at 78.58% and Duke Energy at 61.97%, compared to the industry average of 61.42% [14] - AES is preferred over Duke Energy due to its stronger long-term earnings growth, higher ROI, more attractive dividend yield, and better valuation metrics [19]