Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao·2026-01-19 14:47Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing a significant correction, influenced by a data error from Nvidia regarding copper demand for AI data centers, which has led to a downward adjustment in copper price expectations [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Reaction - On January 19, major copper stocks such as Jiangxi Copper, Yunnan Copper, and Tongling Nonferrous Metals saw declines, with the Wind copper industry index dropping by 0.88% [3]. - The main contract for Shanghai copper futures closed at 101,180 yuan per ton, down 0.68%, continuing a downward trend [3]. - The correction in copper prices is attributed to Nvidia's revised claim that 1 GW of traditional data center racks require approximately 200 tons of copper, a drastic reduction from the previously stated 50,000 tons [3][5]. Group 2: Analyst Insights - Analysts believe that the adjustment in Nvidia's copper demand figures will have a limited short-term impact on the copper market, as the industry had already been cautious about the initial figure [2][5]. - The anticipated copper demand from AI data centers is estimated to be around 40,000 tons annually, with the actual increase in demand expected to be only 15,000 tons [5]. - Citibank projects that copper consumption in the data center sector will account for only 1.4% of global copper consumption by 2025, increasing to 2.4% by 2027 [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The copper price is expected to remain high in the first half of the year, driven by macroeconomic inflation expectations and supply constraints, but caution is advised for potential corrections in the second half [2][9]. - Analysts suggest that the copper market may experience a shift from surplus to tight balance in the second quarter, supporting high price levels [9]. - Goldman Sachs maintains a long-term bullish outlook on copper, predicting a price of $15,000 per ton by 2035, but warns of potential price declines in late 2026 and early 2027 due to increased speculative positions [9].