美联储主席候选者生变：华尔街交易员里德尔成黑马

Core Viewpoint - The competition for the new Federal Reserve Chair has intensified with the emergence of a new candidate, Rick Rieder, alongside established contenders Kevin Hassett, Kevin Warsh, and Christopher Waller [1][2]. Group 1: Candidate Profiles - Rick Rieder, currently the Chief Investment Officer at BlackRock, has shown strong performance in interviews with President Trump, leading to an increased probability of his nomination [2][3]. - Rieder's background differs from traditional candidates as he lacks a PhD in economics, similar to the current Chair Jerome Powell, which may signal a shift in the selection process [2]. - Kevin Hassett, previously a leading candidate, may remain in his current role, narrowing the competition to Rieder, Warsh, and Waller, who represent more conventional choices with extensive central bank experience [5]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Views - Rieder advocates for lowering interest rates to around 3% as the "neutral level" and has a more lenient stance on government deficits and inflation, suggesting that slightly higher inflation could be acceptable if it stabilizes debt dynamics and maintains employment [3]. - The prediction market indicates that Kevin Warsh remains the frontrunner for nomination, with Rieder's chances significantly rising to second place [3]. Group 3: Political Context - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has indicated that Trump plans to announce the nominee around the time of the Davos Forum to reduce market uncertainty [4]. - The political environment has become tense, particularly with the Justice Department's recent actions against the current Chair Powell, which may complicate the nomination process for any candidate [4]. - Rieder is viewed as a "safer option" for Senate confirmation due to his distance from political controversies, contrasting with traditional candidates who are more entrenched in Washington politics [4].