Should You Buy, Sell or Hold J&J Stock Ahead of Q4 Results?

Core Insights - Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is set to report its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on January 21, with consensus estimates for sales at $24.14 billion and earnings at $2.50 per share [1] - The earnings estimates for 2025 have slightly decreased from $10.87 to $10.83 per share, and for 2026 from $11.48 to $11.46 per share over the past 60 days [1] Earnings Estimates - Current earnings estimates for Q1, Q2, FY 2025, and FY 2026 are $2.49, $2.77, $10.83, and $11.46 respectively, showing a downward trend in estimates over the past 60 days [2] - JNJ has a history of exceeding earnings expectations, with an average earnings surprise of 3.75% over the last four quarters [2] Business Segment Performance - The Innovative Medicine segment is expected to show growth driven by key products like Darzalex, Tremfya, and Erleada, with sales estimates of $3.74 billion, $1.36 billion, and $936 million respectively [5] - The MedTech business has improved due to acquisitions and is expected to continue strong performance in cardiovascular and surgical units, with a sales estimate of $8.71 billion [10][11] Challenges and Competition - The launch of several biosimilars for Stelara has negatively impacted its sales, with an estimated decline of 1070 basis points in the third quarter and expected further decline in the fourth quarter [7] - Sales of Imbruvica are anticipated to decline due to competitive pressures and the redesign of Medicare Part D, with an estimate of $670 million [8][9] Future Outlook - JNJ plans to provide an updated financial outlook for 2026, expecting over 5% revenue growth, which is higher than the previous consensus estimate of 4.6% [12] - The company has advanced its pipeline significantly, with 10 new products expected to potentially deliver peak sales of $5 billion [22] Stock Performance and Valuation - JNJ shares have outperformed the industry, rising 48.7% over the past year compared to the industry growth of 24.1% [15] - The stock is currently trading at a price/earnings ratio of 19.01, higher than the industry average of 17.73 and above its five-year mean of 15.65 [18] Investment Considerations - JNJ's diversified business model, strong cash flows, and consistent dividend increases over 63 years make it a compelling investment despite current challenges [20][24]