【环球财经】荷兰国际集团：资本流入偏弱致土耳其经常账户赤字持续扩大

Core Viewpoint - The Turkish current account deficit has continued to widen, influenced by weak capital inflows and an increasing trade gap, with a notable deterioration in trade data reported for December [1][2]. Group 1: Current Account Deficit - In November, Turkey's current account deficit reached $3.99 billion, ending a four-month streak of surpluses, which was higher than market expectations [1]. - The widening deficit was primarily driven by increased trade imbalance and a rise in gold imports [1]. - The core account, excluding gold and energy, recorded a surplus of $2.13 billion in November [1]. Group 2: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) - Turkey attracted a net inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI) amounting to $990 million in November [1]. - Cumulatively, FDI for the first eleven months of 2025 reached approximately $12.4 billion, with significant investments in wholesale and retail, information and communication technology, and food manufacturing sectors [1]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The Turkish government anticipates that the current account deficit will remain at a sustainable level over the next year, potentially approaching 1.5% of GDP by 2026 [2]. - Factors supporting this outlook include improvements in export structure, declining energy prices, favorable euro-to-dollar exchange rates, and structural reforms, although gold prices are a significant factor in the recent expansion of the deficit [2].