ZACKS·2026-01-19 18:32Core Viewpoint - U.S. Bancorp (USB) is expected to report year-over-year increases in quarterly revenues and earnings for Q4 2025, with results scheduled for January 20, 2026 [1][9] Financial Performance Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net interest income (NII) is $4.29 billion, reflecting a 1.8% increase from the previous quarter [4] - The consensus estimate for total revenues is pegged at $7.33 billion, indicating a rise of 4.9% from the year-ago figure [14] - The consensus estimate for earnings per share is $1.19, representing an 11.2% increase from the prior year [14] Factors Influencing Performance - NII growth is expected to be supported by lower interest rates, stabilizing funding costs, and resilient loan demand [3][9] - Lending activity remained strong, particularly in commercial and industrial loans, despite uncertainties in tariff policies [4] - Non-interest income is projected to decline sequentially, with total non-interest income estimated at $3.04 billion, a decrease of 1.3% [10] Market Conditions - Elevated market volatility and client activity during the fourth quarter are anticipated to have positively impacted capital markets revenue [6] - Mortgage banking revenues are expected to decline to $166.9 million, a 7.3% decrease from the prior quarter, due to subdued refinancing activity [8][7] Expense Management - Total non-interest expenses are projected to rise by approximately 1%–1.5% compared to the previous quarter, driven by higher compensation and technology investments [10][11] Asset Quality - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for non-performing loans is $1.63 billion, indicating a 1.4% increase from the prior quarter [12] - The company is likely to have set aside funds for potential bad loans in light of expected rate cuts and improving economic conditions [11] Earnings Surprise History - U.S. Bancorp has a strong earnings surprise history, with an average surprise of 4.7% over the last four quarters [2]