Procter & Gamble Q2 Earnings Preview: Buy Now or Stay Cautious?

Core Viewpoint - Procter & Gamble (PG) is expected to report second-quarter fiscal 2026 results on January 22, with projected year-over-year sales growth of 1.6% to $22.23 billion, while earnings per share are anticipated to decline by 0.5% to $1.87 [1][2]. Financial Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is $22.23 billion, reflecting a 1.6% increase from the previous year [2]. - The earnings consensus is $1.87 per share, indicating a 0.5% decrease from the prior year [2]. - PG has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 2.3% on average, with a 4.7% surprise in the first quarter of fiscal 2026 [3]. Earnings Prediction - The model indicates a negative Earnings ESP of -0.82% and a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell), suggesting a lower likelihood of an earnings beat this quarter [4]. Operational Challenges - PG faces significant challenges, including elevated commodity costs, higher tariffs, and intense competition in developed markets, which are expected to pressure margins [6][10]. - The company anticipates a commodity cost headwind of $100 million after tax for fiscal 2026, impacting gross margins [8]. - Tariffs are projected to add $400 million in after-tax costs for fiscal 2026, further complicating earnings visibility [10][11]. Margin Outlook - A year-over-year core gross margin decline of 50 basis points is predicted, with core operating margins expected to fall by 80 basis points [9]. - The high-cost environment is likely to continue affecting gross margins in the upcoming quarter [8]. Sales Growth Projections - Organic sales growth is forecasted at 1% for the second quarter, with specific segments like Beauty and Health Care expected to grow by 2%, and Grooming by 4% [14]. - Fabric & Home Care and Baby, Feminine & Family Care segments are anticipated to remain flat year-over-year [14]. Strategic Initiatives - PG is focusing on restructuring, productivity initiatives, and innovation to navigate current challenges and improve agility [15][25]. - The company is rolling out major product upgrades and new formats to drive sustainable growth [13]. Stock Performance and Valuation - PG shares have declined by 6.7% over the past six months, underperforming the industry average decline of 8.4% [16][20]. - The stock is trading at a forward P/E multiple of 20.18X, above the industry average of 18.2X but below the S&P 500's average of 23.29X, indicating a premium valuation [21]. Investment Considerations - The investment appeal of PG lies in its strong brand portfolio and disciplined execution, despite near-term pressures from competitive intensity and input costs [24][25]. - Investors may prefer a cautious approach, monitoring execution on innovation and productivity initiatives, while existing shareholders might hold for stability [27].