Citizens Financial to Post Q4 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

Core Viewpoint - Citizens Financial Group, Inc. (CFG) is expected to report an increase in fourth-quarter and 2025 earnings and revenues compared to the previous year [1][10] Financial Performance Expectations - CFG's net interest income (NII) is projected to rise by 2.5-3% sequentially in Q4 2025, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.53 billion, reflecting a 2.7% increase from the prior quarter [4] - The average interest-earning assets are estimated at $199.9 billion, indicating a 1.2% rise from the previous quarter [5] - The consensus estimate for fourth-quarter earnings is $1.11 per share, representing a 30.6% increase year-over-year, while revenues are expected to reach $2.15 billion, an 8.2% rise from the previous year [15] Income Sources - Non-interest income is anticipated to be flat, with mortgage banking fees estimated at $51.5 million, a 5.1% decline from the prior quarter [7] - Trust and investment services fees are expected to increase to $96.3 million, a 3.5% rise from the previous quarter [8] - Service charge and fee revenues are projected at $114.9 million, reflecting a 2.6% increase from the prior quarter [9] - Card fees are estimated at $89.6 million, indicating a 2.9% rise from the previous quarter [11] Expense and Asset Quality Outlook - Adjusted non-interest expenses are expected to be stable or slightly up due to the opening of private banking offices and investments in technology [12] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for non-accrual loans is pegged at $1.57 billion, indicating a sequential rise of 3.3% [13] 2025 Outlook - Management anticipates NII to rise by 3-5% from $5.6 billion in 2024, with a net interest margin (NIM) expected to be 3% [16] - Average loans are projected to decrease by 2-3% from $139.2 billion in 2024, while average earnings assets are forecasted to fall by 1% from $198.1 billion [16] - Non-interest income is expected to increase by 8-10% from $2.6 billion reported in 2024 [16] - Adjusted non-interest expenses are projected to grow by 4% from $5.1 billion in 2024 [17]