一线城市房价降幅收窄 政策将持续发力稳预期

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 national real estate data indicates that while the market is still adjusting, positive factors are accumulating, suggesting a potential recovery in 2026 [1][5]. Price Trends - In December 2025, new and second-hand home prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.3% and 0.9% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [2][3]. - Shanghai showed a relatively better performance, with new home prices increasing by 0.2% month-on-month, making it the only first-tier city with a price increase [3]. Sales Performance - The sales area and sales revenue of newly built commercial housing in 2025 decreased by 8.7% and 12.6% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a continued negative growth trend but with signs of support from both supply and demand sides [1][5]. - In December 2025, new home transaction volumes in first-tier cities showed significant month-on-month growth, with Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experiencing increases of 56%, 81%, 28%, and 21%, respectively [3]. Market Inventory - By the end of 2025, the nationwide unsold housing inventory reached 76,632 million square meters, an increase of 1.6% year-on-year, but a decrease of 1.0% compared to November [6]. - The growth rate of unsold inventory has significantly narrowed compared to previous years, indicating a market self-balancing effect [6]. Policy Signals - The government has released clear "stabilizing expectations" signals for 2026, including policies such as extending the housing exchange tax refund and lowering the down payment ratio for commercial properties [1][7]. - The article emphasizes the importance of managing market expectations to stabilize the real estate market, advocating for decisive policy measures to avoid prolonged adjustments [7]. Future Outlook - Analysts expect that the effects of various favorable policies will further be released in 2026, leading to positive adjustments and improvements in real estate indicators [1][7]. - The market is anticipated to gradually stabilize and transition towards a phase of high-quality development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [7].