Walmart Stock Has Been a Big Winner Recently. But Is It Overvalued Now?

Core Viewpoint - Walmart's stock has surged over 30% in the past year, outperforming the S&P 500, but concerns arise regarding its high price-to-earnings ratio in the forties, indicating potential valuation risk [1][8]. Business Performance - Walmart has demonstrated strong performance in its core business, with revenue growth accelerating to 5.8% year-over-year in Q3 of fiscal 2026, up from 4.8% in the previous quarter [4]. - Global e-commerce sales grew by 27% year-over-year, while the global advertising business saw a remarkable 53% increase in the same period [4]. - Membership income also showed significant growth, with a 17% year-over-year increase, driven by a double-digit growth rate in Walmart+ membership income in the U.S. and a 34% increase internationally [5][6]. Valuation Concerns - Walmart's current price-to-earnings ratio stands at 42, with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 39, which is higher than that of faster-growing tech companies like Meta Platforms and Alphabet [7]. - The high valuation suppresses Walmart's dividend yield, currently at 0.8%, which may affect the stock's return profile [8]. - The debate over Walmart's valuation centers on whether the stock price has appreciated too quickly, despite the company's strengths and growth potential [8][9]. Investment Outlook - While Walmart possesses strengths that justify a valuation premium, such as resilience in uncertain economic conditions and economies of scale, the high price-to-earnings ratio poses a risk if any signs of weakness emerge [9][10]. - Patience is advised for potential investors, as the current valuation risk is significant following the stock's substantial increase over the past year [10].