正信期货黄益：基本面驱动有限，短期PVC跟随商品情绪波动

Group 1 - The short-term PVC fundamentals remain largely unchanged, with exports potentially alleviating supply pressure temporarily, but downstream demand is expected to weaken seasonally [2][15] - The domestic mid-term outlook is influenced by macro policy expectations, with PVC caught in a tug-of-war between weak realities and strong expectations, leading to limited price fluctuations and a recommendation against heavy positions [15][12] Group 2 - PVC industry operating rates are high, with overall domestic PVC operating at 79.08% as of January 15, and expected to maintain high levels during the first quarter [3][16] - The inventory situation is concerning, with a projected increase in stock levels, reaching 52.17 million tons in East and South China, indicating a supply surplus [3][16] - The first quarter of 2026 is expected to see a return to a stock accumulation phase, with demand weakening during the Chinese New Year [3][16] Group 3 - Domestic demand for PVC is anticipated to weaken seasonally, particularly in hard products like pipes and profiles, while soft product orders show limited improvement [5][21] - The export performance of PVC has been strong, with exports from January to November 2025 reaching 350.88 million tons, a 47.1% increase year-on-year [5][21] - A policy change to cancel the PVC export tax rebate starting April 1, 2026, has led to increased export activity, although the market is expected to stabilize as prices rise [5][21] Group 4 - The cost side of PVC production shows limited support, with ongoing losses in PVC products but some relief from caustic soda profits [9][24] - The current market dynamics reflect a struggle between weak realities and policy expectations, with cost support being more of a bottom support rather than a driver for valuation [9][24] Group 5 - Overall, the macro sentiment is weak, and the PVC price center has shifted downward, with high inventory levels and limited demand support [11][26] - The strategy for PVC remains cautious, with expectations of limited changes in fundamentals and a focus on monitoring policy developments [12][26]